Stay To The Last Out
This blog will have infrequent updates on baseball topics. It will focus primarily on the Los Angeles Dodgers, their current season and some history that I might find interesting. I will also post pictures of baseball cards.
I feel that it's necessary to explain why I am writing a baseball blog, because it seems self-important and self-indulgent. Well, it is--why would anyone care about some anonymous guy's baseball opinions? I don't have an answer for that, but I've thought about doing this for awhile and I need a new hobby. I have written plenty for my employers over the years, so it might be a good exercise to finally try to write cogently about a topic I spend a lot of my free time thinking about.
I miss the way the Internet was a decade or two ago. It was the blogs I read on the pre-social media Internet that turned me from a baseball fan to a baseball obsessive. Those blogs gave their writers the chance to share their unique fan perspective. They also helped fans like me learn about new currents in thinking about baseball (or new to me anyway) that involved advanced statistics and challenges to the conventional wisdom that dominated not only teams but sports writing.
There are plenty of good blogs still, but the baseball internet has given way to listicles and websites run by big media companies. And the best baseball writing is often very technically advanced. I appreciate the people who can query databases and do scouting reports off of video, but I won't be trying that. This is a DIY guy in his mom's basement blog that you might have seen on the tail end of geocities' heyday.
So here is one more site cluttering the web.
Sunday, March 31, 2019
Saturday, March 30, 2019
2019 team comments
Here are my notes for each team to start the 2019 season. No predictions. I think there will be interesting races in three divisions, the NL Central and East and the AL East.
I am not referencing any stats or player projections, and just going off my recollection from last year, the offseason, and the few previews I’ve read. I find myself spending less time reading season previews than I once did—the season is long and I will figure out who went where eventually anyways. This will be riddled with factual errors and important omissions.
NL East
Atlanta Braves—I heard some complaints that the Braves weren’t going after any of the big free agents. It’s interesting to me that people generally acknowledge that the big ticket free agent contracts are often bad deals, and still begrudge teams for not committing to bad assets over the course of a decade. Anyway, they signed Josh Donaldson, and he’s a very good player coming off of a season lost to injury. Acuna is really good. Brian McCann is back but that isn’t very consequential. They have a lot of young arms and I think their development will determine if the Braves can turn this group into perennial contenders.
Miami Marlins—they changed their logo and uniforms again. The last iteration grew on me over the few years they wore them. It seems like the original core of baseball teams have solid uniforms that have stood the test of time—you don’t see the Cardinals changing anything up every 10 years or so like the expansion teams do. I’m not sure why that is. Anyway, what else is there to say about the Marlins? They have finally finished trading their useful players, with Realmuto shipped to Philadelphia. What a wretched franchise. Maybe things will get better.
New York Mets—they made a big trade with Seattle, so now Robinson Cano is back in New York but for the other team. Edwin Diaz came over too. Jacob de Grom signed an extension, as did about 1/3 of all stars in baseball over the last few months. I believe they also signed Wilson Ramos. Their lineup does not seem strong enough compared to Atlanta, Washington and Philadelphia, but their rotation might be great if Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler keep their arms intact.
Philadelphia Phillies—they fell apart late last year and made a lot of changes in the offseason. They signed Andrew McCutchen, traded for Jean Segura and JT Realmuto, and then signed Bryce Harper. Their homegrown talent doesn’t seem that impressive to me at the moment, but maybe Scott Kingery will develop. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are very good though. Harper’s performance is going to be one of the most interesting things to watch over the next few years.
Washington Nationals—Patrick Corbin is the new addition, and with Scherzer and Strasburg, their rotation should be quite good. I think Juan Soto will help people forget about Harper, and Victor Robles is a good prospect too. The Nats are the exception to my comment above about expansion team uniforms.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles—their turn as a contender was short lived and now they are awful for the foreseeable future. A few years ago they gave Chris Davis a $100 million+ commitment.
Boston Red Sox—the great teams from 2018 really did not make big expenditures to improve their rosters. They resigned Nate Eovaldi, and I guess he’s good now that he has learned how to get movement on his fastball. Boagarts, Betts, Benintendi, JD Martinez, Devers. What a lineup.
New York Yankees—the Yankees haven’t had a bad team since the early 1990s. James Paxton is new, Aaron Hicks, whose career has turned around in New York, was extended. Troy Tulowitzki had one of the most rapid declines I can remember, but he is on the team at least until Didi Gregorius is back from his injury. DJ Lemahieu is on the team but I don’t think he is likely to make a big impact. There are a few guys on the team known for hitting home runs. Now that Jeter is long gone I find that I’ve lost my interest in hating the Yankees. People constantly say things like “baseball is better when the Yankees are good” and I suppose there is some value in the continuity of juggernaut Yankee teams. I refuse to watch ESPN Yankee-Red Sox coverage.
Tampa Bay Rays—I cannot admit to watching the Rays at all, or paying much attention. Blake Snell is good and they have Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton now. I can probably name two other players on the roster if I really tried. They are probably all young and can play multiple positions. The Rays pioneered “the opener” concept, which I understand is a very smart and progressive tactic, but leaves me cold. Is there a stadium in the majors that looks worse on TV than theirs?
Toronto Blue Jays—they have a new manager named Montoya. Seems like the trend of hiring inexperienced recently retired players as first time managers has ended. Montoya paid his dues managing in the minors. It seems like Vladimir Guerrero Sr. just finished his playing career and now there is a junior. I wonder what the average length of time is between the end of a father’s career and the start of a son’s career.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs—another great teams that didn’t do much in the offseason. Their core didn’t seem as invulnerable last year, but Rizzo and Bryant will probably have better seasons. Strange to say that about a team that won 95+ games. Maybe the bigger problem is some of the signings they have made in the past few years. Yu Darvish, Jason Heyward and Tyler Chatwood haven’t panned out, and Jose Quintana hasn’t been as good for the Cubs as he was for the other Chicago team.
Cincinnati Reds—Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark and Sonny Grey are new to Cincinnati. And the great Joey Votto is still around, looking like he will spend his entire career with the Reds. Maybe the Reds will be good enough to entertain their fans this season. I find the “get really bad so that you can get really good” cycle that baseball teams go through to be quite boring. I think there is something to be said for trying to improve your team even if you don’t really have a chance of going to the World Series. Put out a decent team and try to entertain your fans.
Milwaukee Brewers—related to the last comment, I appreciate that the Brewers didn’t spend 5 seasons losing 100 games in order to get back to their “competitive window.” There are other ways of acquiring and developing talent, and their rise to the top of the NL provides an example of how it can be done. The only thing that struck me about their offseason was the re-signing of Mike Moustakas. I’m curious to see how he can handle second base. It might just be my imagination but it seems like there are more players being asked to switch positions lately. The way teams understand batted ball tendencies maybe they can compensate for a lack of range.
Pittsburgh Pirates—the Pirates got such an upgrade in stadiums when they moved from their old multi-purpose concrete dome stadium to their current stadium. They have some interesting players in Marte and Taillon and I’m sure there are a few prospects percolating but I don’t know who they are yet. Being in the same division as St. Louis and Chicago is no fun. They had some good teams recently but their run was short lived.
St. Louis Cardinals—Paul Goldschmidt is very good, so is Andrew Miller. Marcell Ozuna might improve in his second season in St. Louis. And besides, I never doubt the Cardinals ability to turn, say, a minor league free agent or waiver wire pick up into a useful player.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox—the downside of stripping it all down, trading off your good players for prospects, is that sometimes the prospects don’t pan out and you just suck for a long time. I haven’t paid enough attention to know if that is what is happening to the White Sox. Feels like forever since they have been good.
Cleveland Indians—everyone on the baseball internet loves to hate Trevor Bauer. One of those contagious internet opinions. Corey Kluber is the most under-the-radar superstar in recent years. The organizational strategy of doing just enough to fend off the mediocre competition in the AL Central could come back to bite them if they have serious injuries or decline.
Detroit Tigers—a sign of how bad it is for the Tigers right now is that people are disappointed that Michael Fulmer won’t be able to be traded for prospects, due to injury. They weren’t going to get much for him. I will be interested to see how Miguel Cabrera finishes up his career. I hope it goes better for him than it has for Albert Pujols.
Kansas City Royals—seems like the Royals run ended fast, doesn’t it? There has been a lot of talk about the Royals being intent on running this year. Not sure if their speedy guys will get on base enough to truly make an impact. Of all the suboptimal strategies that have gone by the wayside, the stolen base is the most exciting.
Minnesota Twins—they are very close to challenging Cleveland, now having a pitching staff that is not entirely comprised of soft tossers. A good offense too, if Miguel Sano can bounce back and Nelson Cruz doesn’t collapse. They are one of those “if everything goes right they’ll have a shot” teams. Every few years a team like that will win their division.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks—if you’re going to be aggressive about aligning your competitive window to the teams in your division, then it’s right to do what the Diamondbacks did in unloading their key players, because they aren’t challenging the Dodgers in the next few years. I’m sure they are hoping that Zack Greinke is good to start the season, because he might get them a prospect in a trade. Greinke seems like he could pitch effectively for many more years despite losing velocity.
Colorado Rockies—figuring out how to best construct a team for 81 games at Coors Field has always seemed like the greatest challenge in baseball to me. Somehow they’ve finally put together a good home grown pitching staff. Daniel Murphy should do well for them. But they probably need another big bat, or some career years, to provide enough offense to make the pitching stand up.
Los Angeles Dodgers—I will have more thoughts on them (and all of their players) eventually since they will be the focus of this fledgling project. The Dodgers have about 30 good players in their organization and have very little risk of a total collapse over the next few years. This is the greatest stretch in Dodgers history.
San Diego Padres—I don’t have nearly the level of curiosity that some fans do about prospects. If I did, I suppose I would know a lot more about why the Padres are expected to be good at some point in the next few years. Manny Machado might be the best player they have had in 20 years or so. It will be nice to have a new rival to the Dodgers in the division. I know at least one person who finds their friar mascot to be deeply unsettling.
San Francisco Giants—time for a rebuild, and I’m surprised that Farhan Zaidi hasn’t started it yet. I’m not a Dodgers fan who reflexively loathes the Giants. I am envious of their recent success—the Dodgers have been better than them over the last decade and yet the Giants have three rings and the Dodgers have none. I have always found players to like on the Giants. Barry Bonds is one of my all-time favorites. I think Bruce Bochy is a great manager and I might even read his memoir about walking one day. I miss Vin Scully mentioning his hat size once in each Dodger-Giants series.
AL West
Houston Astros—the team that seems the most invulnerable to me. Their lineup is relentless, and the way they have been able to improve the performance of the pitchers they’ve acquired shows what an advanced data and player development operation are capable of.
Los Angeles Angels—I am excited they have Mike Trout for the duration of his career. I saw a lot of people react to his contract extension with some variation of “what have the Angels done to deserve him” or “why would he stay there.” There are plenty of reasons he might. Winning isn’t the only thing a player should care about. The idea that a player should go to a team that has the best chance of winning a championship is strange to me. And besides, the Angels have tried to put a good team around Trout, they just made some bad bets.
Oakland A’s—to the extent that one can have a secondary rooting interest, mine has always been the A’s. A big part of that is the romantic underdog story told in Moneyball, but even before that I loved Ricky Henderson, Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire. I love the green and gold uniforms that most people think are ugly, and I even think the Oakland Coliseum isn’t as irredeemable as most people think (cheap seats are available! And it doesn’t look as bad on tv as it feels in person). They have a lot of good players but the loss of Matt Olsen is a big blow to start the season. I like Jurickson Profar and I hope he has a big year. You don’t want to depend on Brett Anderson to stay healthy.
Seattle Mariners—their stadium has a new corporate naming sponsor. At this point I’m not going to try to keep track of the various names on the major league parks. I bet it’s a lot of work changing all of the signs around town directing people to the stadium. I don’t think there’s a team that has had so many great players in its history and so little success. They certainly won’t do much this year. Texas Rangers—I read somewhere that in 2019 there are no players on opening day rosters who played in the 20th Century. The players who had played both in the 20th Century and in 2018, Adrian Beltre and Bartolo Colon, played for Texas last.
I am not referencing any stats or player projections, and just going off my recollection from last year, the offseason, and the few previews I’ve read. I find myself spending less time reading season previews than I once did—the season is long and I will figure out who went where eventually anyways. This will be riddled with factual errors and important omissions.
NL East
Atlanta Braves—I heard some complaints that the Braves weren’t going after any of the big free agents. It’s interesting to me that people generally acknowledge that the big ticket free agent contracts are often bad deals, and still begrudge teams for not committing to bad assets over the course of a decade. Anyway, they signed Josh Donaldson, and he’s a very good player coming off of a season lost to injury. Acuna is really good. Brian McCann is back but that isn’t very consequential. They have a lot of young arms and I think their development will determine if the Braves can turn this group into perennial contenders.
Miami Marlins—they changed their logo and uniforms again. The last iteration grew on me over the few years they wore them. It seems like the original core of baseball teams have solid uniforms that have stood the test of time—you don’t see the Cardinals changing anything up every 10 years or so like the expansion teams do. I’m not sure why that is. Anyway, what else is there to say about the Marlins? They have finally finished trading their useful players, with Realmuto shipped to Philadelphia. What a wretched franchise. Maybe things will get better.
New York Mets—they made a big trade with Seattle, so now Robinson Cano is back in New York but for the other team. Edwin Diaz came over too. Jacob de Grom signed an extension, as did about 1/3 of all stars in baseball over the last few months. I believe they also signed Wilson Ramos. Their lineup does not seem strong enough compared to Atlanta, Washington and Philadelphia, but their rotation might be great if Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler keep their arms intact.
Philadelphia Phillies—they fell apart late last year and made a lot of changes in the offseason. They signed Andrew McCutchen, traded for Jean Segura and JT Realmuto, and then signed Bryce Harper. Their homegrown talent doesn’t seem that impressive to me at the moment, but maybe Scott Kingery will develop. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are very good though. Harper’s performance is going to be one of the most interesting things to watch over the next few years.
Washington Nationals—Patrick Corbin is the new addition, and with Scherzer and Strasburg, their rotation should be quite good. I think Juan Soto will help people forget about Harper, and Victor Robles is a good prospect too. The Nats are the exception to my comment above about expansion team uniforms.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles—their turn as a contender was short lived and now they are awful for the foreseeable future. A few years ago they gave Chris Davis a $100 million+ commitment.
Boston Red Sox—the great teams from 2018 really did not make big expenditures to improve their rosters. They resigned Nate Eovaldi, and I guess he’s good now that he has learned how to get movement on his fastball. Boagarts, Betts, Benintendi, JD Martinez, Devers. What a lineup.
New York Yankees—the Yankees haven’t had a bad team since the early 1990s. James Paxton is new, Aaron Hicks, whose career has turned around in New York, was extended. Troy Tulowitzki had one of the most rapid declines I can remember, but he is on the team at least until Didi Gregorius is back from his injury. DJ Lemahieu is on the team but I don’t think he is likely to make a big impact. There are a few guys on the team known for hitting home runs. Now that Jeter is long gone I find that I’ve lost my interest in hating the Yankees. People constantly say things like “baseball is better when the Yankees are good” and I suppose there is some value in the continuity of juggernaut Yankee teams. I refuse to watch ESPN Yankee-Red Sox coverage.
Tampa Bay Rays—I cannot admit to watching the Rays at all, or paying much attention. Blake Snell is good and they have Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton now. I can probably name two other players on the roster if I really tried. They are probably all young and can play multiple positions. The Rays pioneered “the opener” concept, which I understand is a very smart and progressive tactic, but leaves me cold. Is there a stadium in the majors that looks worse on TV than theirs?
Toronto Blue Jays—they have a new manager named Montoya. Seems like the trend of hiring inexperienced recently retired players as first time managers has ended. Montoya paid his dues managing in the minors. It seems like Vladimir Guerrero Sr. just finished his playing career and now there is a junior. I wonder what the average length of time is between the end of a father’s career and the start of a son’s career.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs—another great teams that didn’t do much in the offseason. Their core didn’t seem as invulnerable last year, but Rizzo and Bryant will probably have better seasons. Strange to say that about a team that won 95+ games. Maybe the bigger problem is some of the signings they have made in the past few years. Yu Darvish, Jason Heyward and Tyler Chatwood haven’t panned out, and Jose Quintana hasn’t been as good for the Cubs as he was for the other Chicago team.
Cincinnati Reds—Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark and Sonny Grey are new to Cincinnati. And the great Joey Votto is still around, looking like he will spend his entire career with the Reds. Maybe the Reds will be good enough to entertain their fans this season. I find the “get really bad so that you can get really good” cycle that baseball teams go through to be quite boring. I think there is something to be said for trying to improve your team even if you don’t really have a chance of going to the World Series. Put out a decent team and try to entertain your fans.
Milwaukee Brewers—related to the last comment, I appreciate that the Brewers didn’t spend 5 seasons losing 100 games in order to get back to their “competitive window.” There are other ways of acquiring and developing talent, and their rise to the top of the NL provides an example of how it can be done. The only thing that struck me about their offseason was the re-signing of Mike Moustakas. I’m curious to see how he can handle second base. It might just be my imagination but it seems like there are more players being asked to switch positions lately. The way teams understand batted ball tendencies maybe they can compensate for a lack of range.
Pittsburgh Pirates—the Pirates got such an upgrade in stadiums when they moved from their old multi-purpose concrete dome stadium to their current stadium. They have some interesting players in Marte and Taillon and I’m sure there are a few prospects percolating but I don’t know who they are yet. Being in the same division as St. Louis and Chicago is no fun. They had some good teams recently but their run was short lived.
St. Louis Cardinals—Paul Goldschmidt is very good, so is Andrew Miller. Marcell Ozuna might improve in his second season in St. Louis. And besides, I never doubt the Cardinals ability to turn, say, a minor league free agent or waiver wire pick up into a useful player.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox—the downside of stripping it all down, trading off your good players for prospects, is that sometimes the prospects don’t pan out and you just suck for a long time. I haven’t paid enough attention to know if that is what is happening to the White Sox. Feels like forever since they have been good.
Cleveland Indians—everyone on the baseball internet loves to hate Trevor Bauer. One of those contagious internet opinions. Corey Kluber is the most under-the-radar superstar in recent years. The organizational strategy of doing just enough to fend off the mediocre competition in the AL Central could come back to bite them if they have serious injuries or decline.
Detroit Tigers—a sign of how bad it is for the Tigers right now is that people are disappointed that Michael Fulmer won’t be able to be traded for prospects, due to injury. They weren’t going to get much for him. I will be interested to see how Miguel Cabrera finishes up his career. I hope it goes better for him than it has for Albert Pujols.
Kansas City Royals—seems like the Royals run ended fast, doesn’t it? There has been a lot of talk about the Royals being intent on running this year. Not sure if their speedy guys will get on base enough to truly make an impact. Of all the suboptimal strategies that have gone by the wayside, the stolen base is the most exciting.
Minnesota Twins—they are very close to challenging Cleveland, now having a pitching staff that is not entirely comprised of soft tossers. A good offense too, if Miguel Sano can bounce back and Nelson Cruz doesn’t collapse. They are one of those “if everything goes right they’ll have a shot” teams. Every few years a team like that will win their division.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks—if you’re going to be aggressive about aligning your competitive window to the teams in your division, then it’s right to do what the Diamondbacks did in unloading their key players, because they aren’t challenging the Dodgers in the next few years. I’m sure they are hoping that Zack Greinke is good to start the season, because he might get them a prospect in a trade. Greinke seems like he could pitch effectively for many more years despite losing velocity.
Colorado Rockies—figuring out how to best construct a team for 81 games at Coors Field has always seemed like the greatest challenge in baseball to me. Somehow they’ve finally put together a good home grown pitching staff. Daniel Murphy should do well for them. But they probably need another big bat, or some career years, to provide enough offense to make the pitching stand up.
Los Angeles Dodgers—I will have more thoughts on them (and all of their players) eventually since they will be the focus of this fledgling project. The Dodgers have about 30 good players in their organization and have very little risk of a total collapse over the next few years. This is the greatest stretch in Dodgers history.
San Diego Padres—I don’t have nearly the level of curiosity that some fans do about prospects. If I did, I suppose I would know a lot more about why the Padres are expected to be good at some point in the next few years. Manny Machado might be the best player they have had in 20 years or so. It will be nice to have a new rival to the Dodgers in the division. I know at least one person who finds their friar mascot to be deeply unsettling.
San Francisco Giants—time for a rebuild, and I’m surprised that Farhan Zaidi hasn’t started it yet. I’m not a Dodgers fan who reflexively loathes the Giants. I am envious of their recent success—the Dodgers have been better than them over the last decade and yet the Giants have three rings and the Dodgers have none. I have always found players to like on the Giants. Barry Bonds is one of my all-time favorites. I think Bruce Bochy is a great manager and I might even read his memoir about walking one day. I miss Vin Scully mentioning his hat size once in each Dodger-Giants series.
AL West
Houston Astros—the team that seems the most invulnerable to me. Their lineup is relentless, and the way they have been able to improve the performance of the pitchers they’ve acquired shows what an advanced data and player development operation are capable of.
Los Angeles Angels—I am excited they have Mike Trout for the duration of his career. I saw a lot of people react to his contract extension with some variation of “what have the Angels done to deserve him” or “why would he stay there.” There are plenty of reasons he might. Winning isn’t the only thing a player should care about. The idea that a player should go to a team that has the best chance of winning a championship is strange to me. And besides, the Angels have tried to put a good team around Trout, they just made some bad bets.
Oakland A’s—to the extent that one can have a secondary rooting interest, mine has always been the A’s. A big part of that is the romantic underdog story told in Moneyball, but even before that I loved Ricky Henderson, Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire. I love the green and gold uniforms that most people think are ugly, and I even think the Oakland Coliseum isn’t as irredeemable as most people think (cheap seats are available! And it doesn’t look as bad on tv as it feels in person). They have a lot of good players but the loss of Matt Olsen is a big blow to start the season. I like Jurickson Profar and I hope he has a big year. You don’t want to depend on Brett Anderson to stay healthy.
Seattle Mariners—their stadium has a new corporate naming sponsor. At this point I’m not going to try to keep track of the various names on the major league parks. I bet it’s a lot of work changing all of the signs around town directing people to the stadium. I don’t think there’s a team that has had so many great players in its history and so little success. They certainly won’t do much this year. Texas Rangers—I read somewhere that in 2019 there are no players on opening day rosters who played in the 20th Century. The players who had played both in the 20th Century and in 2018, Adrian Beltre and Bartolo Colon, played for Texas last.
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